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| Slower Data. Slower Morning | ||
| 2/12/2026 8:07 AM | ||
| When the jobs report makes a big statement, bonds are more likely to exhibit elevated momentum and volatility in the following days. In more than a few past examples, a big jobs report can set the tone for the entire month--all the way until the next jobs report comes out. Perhaps it"s the delayed release of yesterday"s report and the resulting jux...Read More | ||
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| Stunning Resilience | ||
| 2/11/2026 3:09 PM | ||
| Stunning Resilience One could argue that our bar is set too low if we view today"s bond market resilience as "stunning," but if that"s not the right word, it"s damn close. Last Thursday saw yields drop 8bps, largely due to a trio of labor market reports that are nowhere near as heavily traded as today"s job...Read More | ||
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| Modest Increase in Rates is a Win. Here"s Why | ||
| 2/11/2026 1:26 PM | ||
| Mortgage rates moved 0.03% higher today. On almost any other day, this would be a bit of a bummer, but in today"s case, it"s a victory. There was a ton of potential volatility in the underlying bond market heading into the day due to the scheduled release of the big monthly jobs report. In addition, rates had taken a bit of an anticipatory lead-of...Read More | ||
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| Calmer Week For Mortgage Apps | ||
| 2/11/2026 1:03 PM | ||
| Mortgage application activity was essentially flat last week, almost impressively so. After much recent volatility, the index is finding a brief moment of stability, and borrowers seem content continue to weigh affordability challenges and wait for clearer movement in rates. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported that applications decrease...Read More | ||
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| DPA, HELOC, Correspondent eNote, Escrow Mgt. Tools; STRATMOR on IMB Concerns; Servicing Alarms | ||
| 2/11/2026 10:50 AM | ||
| Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders “Escrow is supposed to be predictable. But in default servicing, that predictability diminishes when a loan enters delinquency. Escrows stop being a background process and turns into a manual, high-risk exercise. As core systems fall back on rigid rules, middle operations step in, rebuildin...Read More | ||
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| Bonds Selling But Not Panicking After Super Strong Jobs Numbers | ||
| 2/11/2026 8:48 AM | ||
| Nearly an hour after this morning"s surprisingly strong jobs report, 10yr yields are only 4.4bps higher at 4.19%. On a normal day, 4.4bps might be a fairly big sell-off, but it"s a huge victory on a day where payrolls came in at 130k vs 70k forecast, and where the unemployment rate fell to 4.3 vs 4.4 expectations. Moreover, labor force participatio...Read More | ||
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| Best Levels in Weeks Ahead of High Stakes Jobs Report | ||
| 2/10/2026 2:39 PM | ||
| Best Levels in Weeks Ahead of High Stakes Jobs Report Rather than circle the wagons and consolidate the recent rally, bonds kicked the buying into higher gear on Tuesday thanks to a surprisingly weak Retail Sales report for December. This can be added to the list of recent data that has urged the bond marke...Read More | ||
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| Lowest Mortgage Rates in More Than 3 Weeks | ||
| 2/10/2026 1:20 PM | ||
| Mortgage rates fell on Tuesday following a downbeat Retail Sales report. At 0.05%, it was the largest single-day drop since the uncommonly big 0.15% drop on January 9th. This also takes the average 30yr fixed rate to 6.11%, easily below its recently narrow range of 6.15-6.20. The bonds that drive mortgage rates are always tuned in to various econo...Read More | ||
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| Servicing, QC, Workflow, Non-Agency Products; LOs Using Tools Effectively; STRATMOR Tech Survey | ||
| 2/10/2026 10:52 AM | ||
| Products, Services, and Software for Brokers and Lenders There’s a reason $5.99 feels different than $6.00. Behavioral economists call it the “left-digit effect.” When it comes to mortgage rates, borrowers just call it a reason to refinance. Optimal Blue’s January Market Advantage report shows falling rates crossing that psychological threshold –...Read More | ||
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| Bonds Taking a Pre-NFP Lead-Off | ||
| 2/10/2026 8:42 AM | ||
| Last Thursday, we discussed the paradox of a rally in the present moment being driven by future data. More specifically, the three downbeat labor market reports increased the stakes for tomorrow"s jobs report. Depending on trends and trading positions, risks can be asymmetrical. A trader who expected higher rates might have only seen a modest incre...Read More | ||
